A Criminological Analysis of Factors Influencing Offending by Prisoners During Temporary Release: A Case Study of Prisoners in Guilan Province, 2016–2021

Abstract

The present study aimed to identify and analyze the individual, criminal, economic, familial, and organizational factors predicting offending by prisoners in Guilan Province during temporary release between 2016 and 2021. This quantitative study employed an analytical case–control design. The study population consisted of 352 prisoners in Guilan Province, who were examined in two equal groups. The case group comprised 176 prisoners who had committed an offense during temporary release, whereas the control group consisted of 176 prisoners who had returned to prison without committing an offense. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire and information extracted from judicial and prison records. The validity of the instrument was confirmed through expert review, and its reliability was established using Cronbach’s alpha coefficients, which ranged from 0.839 to 0.888 across the different dimensions. The data were analyzed using Welch’s t test, the chi-square test, and multivariable logistic regression. The findings indicated that, in the final model, a history of substance addiction (OR = 3.654, 95% CI [2.200, 6.068]) and a prior criminal record (OR = 3.168, 95% CI [1.905, 5.267]) were the most important factors associated with an increased likelihood of offending during temporary release. Conversely, a higher level of education (OR = 0.911, p = .022) and a greater number of previous successful temporary releases (OR = 0.841, p = .018) significantly reduced the likelihood of offending. Variables such as age, marital status, length of sentence, economic pressure, family problems, association with offenders, tensions within the prison environment, and the conduct of criminal justice personnel did not have a statistically significant effect on offending after the simultaneous control of the other variables. The regression model demonstrated an acceptable goodness of fit (p = .702), adequate discriminatory power (AUC = 0.820), and a classification accuracy of 74.1%. Accordingly, it is recommended that the systematic assessment of substance addiction history and prior criminal records, the expansion of educational and vocational training programs, the implementation of gradual and targeted temporary-release arrangements, and the strengthening of post-release supervision and support mechanisms be prioritized in the policymaking of the Prisons Organization and the criminal justice system.